August 2017
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Archive for the 'Scientific Thinking' Category

Just ran across this quote in the introductory quotes of Walter A. Shewhart’s Classic, “Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product”. “A situation like this merely means that those details which determine the future in terms of the past may be so deep in the structure that at present we have no immediate experimental knowledge […]

Deming said the purpose of collecting data was to take action. “Date is not collected for museum purposes.”, he liked to say. Most medical research is done for the purpose of decision-making. The results of medical research studies are to be used to make decisions about treatment or act as guides for further research. There […]

Nate Silver, the well known statistical reporter compared the performance of the main polling organizations forecasting elections. The results of his comparison are shown in the chart.  What is shown is the average error of the pollsters predictions calculated for the number of polls they did.  For example, Quinnipac conducted 21 polls and on average […]

To continue, we need to define a couple of terms. The first is a probability density function and the second is a sampling distribution.A probability density function expresses a particular function in terms of integrals. Thus for a frequency distribution smoothed (over repeated sampling) to form a curve as shown below, the area under the […]

A hypothesis is a supposition made as a basis for research or reasoning without regard for its truth. So says the Oxford dictionary. What starts the hypothesis testing process is just such a supposition. In the justice system example we made, there is a supposition on the part of law enforcement that the apprehended person […]

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